Definition of a weak signal
A weak signal is typically a small innovation or disruption that has the potential to grow in scale and geographic distribution. A signal can be:
- a new product,
- a new practice,
- a new market strategy,
- a new policy,
- a new technology,
- a new event,
- a local trend,
- an organization,
- a recently revealed problem or state of affairs.
In short, a weak signal is s something that catches our attention at one scale and in one locale and points to larger implications for other locales or even globally.
Weak Signals are useful for people who are trying to anticipate a highly uncertain future. They tend to capture emergent phenomenon sooner than traditional social science methods and turn our attention to possible innovations before they become obvious. Unlike indicators, they often focus our attention at the margins of society rather than the core. In this way, they are more likely to reveal disruptions and innovations.
Technology is perhaps the world's greatest disruptor, with the power to rapidly transform people, companies, and even entire civilizations. It drives and enables dramatic change through the entire corporate ecosystem, from R&D and strategy to marketing and human resources.
Reference Links:
http://www.iftf.org/node/3763
http://www.iftf.org/search/node/Signals
http://www.iftf.org/tech
http://www.iftf.org/2010MapoftheDecade
http://www.mgtaylor.com/mgtaylor/wsremerg.htm
http://community.iknowfutures.eu/#
http://wiwe.iknowfutures.eu/scan/easy/weak-signal/
Reference Papers:
Download Schoemaker, Paul J.H., Day, George S. Scanning the Periphery
Download Wild_cards_weak_signals_and_organisational_improvisation
Download Weaksignals academic_EFMN
Download Wsrprocm
Download Hiltunen1
Download A03
Download 2innosem-scenariomaterial